🏈 AFL Round Round 12 — Model Overview
Round Round 12 of the 2026 Australian Football League season is locked in and our XGBoost model has processed every fixture. Here's what the data is saying this week — plus our qualifying tips for the round.
Our recent AFL record: 15W/7L (68% strike rate) on qualifying tips over the last 4 weeks. Every result is tracked publicly at puntersedge.online/record.
How We Pick Our AFL Round Round 12 Tips
For each Round Round 12 fixture, the model analyses rolling form (last 3, 5 and 10 games), head-to-head records, home ground advantage, score differentials and current momentum. Only games where the model reaches 65% confidence or higher generate a tip — everything else is a NO BET.
This round the model has identified 7 qualifying tips. Here's the full breakdown:
Round Round 12 Fixture Tips
St Kilda vs Hawthorn
📅 Thursday 28 May at Docklands
Carlton vs Geelong
📅 Friday 29 May at M.C.G.
Sydney vs Richmond
📅 Saturday 30 May at S.C.G.
Brisbane vs Fremantle
📅 Saturday 30 May at Gabba
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood
📅 Saturday 30 May at Docklands
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Melbourne vs GWS
📅 Sunday 31 May at Traeger Park
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
West Coast vs Essendon
📅 Sunday 31 May at Perth Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Adelaide vs Geelong
📅 Thursday 04 June at Adelaide Oval
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs
📅 Friday 05 June at M.C.G.
North Melbourne vs Fremantle
📅 Saturday 06 June at Hands Oval
Gold Coast vs Brisbane
📅 Saturday 06 June at Carrara
West Coast vs Port Adelaide
📅 Saturday 06 June at Perth Stadium
Staking Guide for Round Round 12
As always, size your bets according to the tip tier:
- 💰 VALUE (1u) — 65–74% model confidence. Solid edge but some uncertainty.
- 💪 STRONG (2u) — 75–84% confidence. Double your standard unit.
- 🏆 BANKER (3u) — 85%+ confidence. Maximum recommended stake.
Keep your unit size at 1–2% of your total bankroll. Consistency over a full season is where the edge shows up — not in any single round.
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